TransUnion Data Points to Measured Expansion for Subprime Lenders in 2026

TransUnion expects growth on credit card balances to slow next year, according to the company’s new forecast on consumer credit in the U.S.

The credit bureau projects that balances on credit cards will increase only 2.3% year over year in 2026. That would be the smallest annual increase in card balances since 2013, with the exception being the decline caused by the 2020 pandemic relief programs, the company said.

The forecast from TransUnion reveals that subprime lenders may be able to grow their portfolios in the coming year, but that growth may be harder to come by than in recent years.

A press release on the company’s forecast notes that lenders are exercising caution in expanding credit access to riskier groups of consumers.

“After elevated credit card balance growth over the last five years, credit card balance growth is expected to moderate driven by both measured spend growth by consumers and prudent credit extension by lenders,” Paul Siegfried, Senior Vice President and Credit Card Business Leader at TransUnion, said in the release.

TransUnion forecasts that balances on credit cards will hit $1.18 trillion by the end of next year.

The company included credit card balance figures from the last several years in its report. From 2021 to 2025, card balances grew between 4.4% and 18.5% each year, according to data from TransUnion. 

Though 2.3% growth may appear paltry, especially in comparison to recent years when balances increased by double-digit percentages, it still represents a significant amount of card spend. TransUnion predicts card balances will reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2026.

One factor that will likely play a critical role in how consumers make use of credit next year is the health of the economy. Subprime borrowers can be among the first to feel pressures on their household budgets when macroeconomic conditions worsen. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released the latest version of its Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey shows that consumers expect the costs of medical care to increase in the next year. Survey participants also said they expect the price for food and gas will grow.

The results of the survey indicate that many consumers envision a gloomy financial road ahead as a smaller portion of respondents said they expect their householdsto be in a better financial situation a year from now.

But lenders shouldn’t necessarily expect those findings to translate into substantial increases in delinquencies. TransUnion forecasts that delinquencies on credit cards will remain virtually flat in the coming year.

And the credit bureau forecasts delinquency rates on auto loans, mortgages, and unsecured personal loans will tick up only slightly in 2026. 

Michele Raneri, Vice President and Head of U.S. Research and Consulting at TransUnion, said in the release that slight increases in delinquency rates on credit products aren’t surprising when you take the economic environment into account.

“The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, and consumers appear to be managing their finances reasonably well,” Raneri added.